30-Year & 15-Year Fixed Rates: 1971 – 2026
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Decade by Decade
Key Rate Milestones
Freddie Mac begins tracking mortgage rates
All-time high: Volcker era peak
15-year fixed rate tracking begins
Rates fall below 7% for first time since 1970s
Post-dot-com crash: rates below 5.5%
Financial crisis triggers emergency rate cuts
Post-crisis low: QE drives rates below 3.5%
COVID-19 pandemic begins rate freefall
All-time low: pandemic-era bottom
Rates breach 7% for first time since 2002
Post-pandemic peak: highest since 2000
Fed begins rate-cutting cycle
What History Tells Us
The most striking pattern in 50+ years of mortgage rate data is the long secular decline that followed the early 1980s peak. From 18.63% in October 1981, the 30-year fixed rate embarked on a multi-decade downtrend that eventually bottomed at 2.65% in January 2021 — a cumulative decline of nearly 16 percentage points over four decades.
Within that long trend, rates have consistently responded to economic cycles. They fall during recessions as the Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates and investors seek the safety of bonds. They rise during periods of strong growth and high inflation, when the Fed tightens policy and bond investors demand higher yields to compensate for eroding purchasing power.
The Federal Reserve is, by far, the single most influential force on mortgage rates. Every major inflection point in rate history — the Volcker tightening of the early 1980s, the Greenspan era, the post-2008 quantitative easing, the pandemic-era emergency measures, and the 2022-2023 tightening cycle — traces back to Fed policy decisions.
At current levels in the low 6% range, today's rates are historically moderate. They sit well below the long-term average of approximately 7.7% and are dramatically lower than anything borrowers experienced before the mid-1990s. While they feel high relative to the exceptional 2-4% rates of 2009 to 2022, that era was the anomaly — not the norm.
Frequently Asked Questions About Mortgage Rate History
Freddie Mac began its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) on April 2, 1971, when the average 30-year fixed rate was 7.33%. The survey has been conducted weekly ever since, making it the longest-running and most widely cited source for U.S. mortgage rate data.
The highest 30-year fixed mortgage rate ever recorded was 18.63% during the week of October 9, 1981. This occurred during Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker's aggressive campaign to control runaway inflation, which had reached nearly 15% annually.
The lowest 30-year fixed rate was 2.65%, recorded during the week of January 7, 2021. This historic low was driven by the Federal Reserve's emergency monetary policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including near-zero interest rates and massive bond purchases.
Rates generally rose from the early 1970s through the early 1980s peak, then entered a long downward trend that lasted roughly four decades. From the 18.63% peak in 1981, rates gradually fell to the 2.65% low in 2021 before rising again in 2022-2023 due to post-pandemic inflation.
Current rates in the low 6% range are historically moderate. They are well below the long-term average of roughly 7.7% since 1971 and dramatically below the 1980s peaks. However, they are significantly higher than the 2-4% range that prevailed from 2009 to 2022.
Mortgage rates are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, inflation expectations, economic growth, and the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield is the most direct benchmark. During recessions, rates tend to fall as the Fed eases policy. During periods of high inflation, rates rise as investors demand higher returns.
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